Why some in Taiwan fear Trump's approach to Ukraine war

The black bag is fastened over Wu Ping-yen's head. From a row of around a dozen people, all with hands tied behind their backs, Wu and the faceless figures beside him slowly fall to the floor outside Russia's de facto embassy in central Taipei, Taiwan's capital.

Organizers said this protest in support of Ukraine, marking the third anniversary of Moscow's invasion of its neighbor, represents the killing of Ukrainians at the hands of Russia. But Wu, a 34-year-old engineer living in Taipei, said he is also here to resist pressure from China, which views the self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province. 

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Wu's support of Kyiv has taken on new urgency. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has been acting erratically ­ — Trump has accused Ukraine's democratically elected leader of being a dictator, implied Ukraine was the one starting the conflict with Russia, and most recently, voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion. 

In Taipei, where US military backing is considered essential to fending off a potential Chinese attack, many are now asking if the government in Washington is still committed to the delicate balance of power in the Taiwan Strait.

Wu told DW that he wasn't concerned about conflict with China in the short term but added that the US was now trying to determine if "Taiwan is worth helping."

"That's where Trump could be unpredictable, if he believes Taiwan isn't resilient enough," he said.

'Today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan'

From the first days of Russia's invasion, many in Taipei have seen Ukraine's fate as a parallel to their own. "Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan" slogans proliferated on Taiwanese social media, and Western officials cast Ukraine and Taiwan as part of the same global struggle against expansionist authoritarian powers. A favorable outcome for Moscow in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned as recently as December, could encourage China to "nibble" at Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have deepened their so-called "no limits partnership." On Monday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation in which they said relations between the two countries have "unique strategic value, and are not aimed at, nor are influenced by, any third party" — a likely reference to the United States.

Since Trump's return to power in January, his new administration has upended alliances with Europe, overturning the view that the two theaters — Europe and Asia — should be tackled in concert with Western partners. US defense secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO allies earlier this month that "stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe." The Trump administration says the US needs to focus on China.

Taiwan trying to bolster US ties

But separating those issues is easier said than done. Amanda Hsiao, China Director at the Eurasia Group consultancy, told DW that what happens in Europe raises questions about how the Trump administration "might sideline Taiwan or coerce Taiwan in its attempt to deter war with China."

Wang Ting-yu, Chair of Taiwan's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, who also attended Trump's inauguration in January, admitted that Trump's approach was "causing some concern in Taiwan" but that it was still too early to make a full judgment.

Wang said Taiwan was communicating with the US and reiterating it was a reliable partner. He told DW that the Taipei government had a "direct way of conveying what we think" but refused to comment on the specifics of communication channels.

Taiwan's presidential office declined to comment for this story, instead referring DW to foreign ministry statements that said Taiwan was "closely monitoring" the positions of the US, Europe and Russia. 

More money for the military

However, despite this global commotion, Taiwan has had causes for optimism. This month, the US State Department removed a line from its website that stated that the White House does not support Taiwan's independence. Following a meeting between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, the leaders issued a joint statement opposing any attempt to change the status quo.

And Taiwan's government is willing to spend money to placate the Trump administration.

Earlier this month, Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te pledged to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP, increase investment into the US and deepen communication over Taiwan's leading role in the global semiconductor industry. Taiwan produces 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors, engines for modern technology. But this essential resource could actually harm its ties with the Trump administration.

Trouble in the neighborhood

The semiconductor exports are a significant reason for the island's trade surplus with the US, which ballooned to nearly $74 billion (€70.6 billion) in 2024, nearly tripling compared to the 2023 surplus.

This is a major irritant for Trump. He has repeatedly stated, though incorrectly, that Taiwan stole the US chip business and threatened tariffs and other measures to balance the US trade deficit. Some of those measures will likely hit Taipei's key partners, such as Japan and South Korea.

Wang from Taiwan's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee said that trust between the US and its allies in Asia is his biggest concern going forward. He cited the minority government in Japan, a power vacuum in South Korea following Yoon Suk Yeol botched attempt to impose martial law and sharp divisions between President Ferdinant Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte in the Philippines as potential sources of instability in the US's mutual defense treaty allies. American military assets in Japan and the Philippines especially are seen as critical resources when it comes to stopping a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

"If anything sabotages the trust between these allies and the United States or Europe, they will move closer to Beijing. Anything that undermines that kind of trust will change the ecology in this region, and that kind of change cannot be changed back for years," Wang told DW.

Undermining Taiwan's morale

Amanda Hsiao, China Director at the Eurasia Group, warned against making direct parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan but said Trump's stance would influence perceptions of US reliability and could also affect attitudes in Taiwan.

"An irresolute Taiwanese population is not good for deterrence and for maintaining momentum around building up Taiwan's defense," Hsiao said. 

Back at the rally in Taipei, protester Huang Yu-hsiang is joining chants demanding Ukrainian involvement in talks between Trump and Putin. He's wearing a camouflage jacket but says he's not an active soldier; on his left shoulder is a sticker. One half is the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag, the other half, the blue and red of Taiwan's. He is not happy about Trump's position on Taiwan.

"If he can abandon Ukraine for his own interests, then couldn't he abandon Taiwan too?"

Edited by: Darko Janjevic