Could Serbia's student protests bring down the government?

For days now, the atmosphere in the area between the Serbian parliament and the presidential palace in Belgrade has been extremely tense.

This symbolic place, so often the scene of major political events in Serbia, is where students plan to hold what many believe will be the largest gathering since protests began following the collapse of the canopy at the entrance to Novi Sad railway station on November 1, which claimed 15 lives.

However, before the protesting students could convene in Belgrade ahead of Saturday's rally, a group calling itself "Students 2.0" or "Students Who Want to Study" set up their protest camp in the space. They are demanding that university classes resume no later than March 17, insisting they want to take exams and attend lectures.

Unlike the students blockading the universities and organizing protests around the country, who operate on the basis of direct democracy and without leaders, "Students 2.0" is led by Milos Pavlovic, who first came to public attention after speaking at a counter-rally organized by the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Since then, Pavlovic has frequently appeared in pro-government media alongside Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and other high-ranking party officials.

Is counterprotest 'an orchestrated setup'?

Jelena Kleut, a philosophy professor at the University of Novi Sad, told DW that this seems to be "an orchestrated setup meant to mirror the student blockade" and that it is in all likelihood organized "from within the ruling regime."

"When a politicized system fails to capture institutions, parallel structures emerge. We already have parallel media, parallel NGOs, and now, within this context, a parallel student movement," she explained.

The "Students Who Want to Study" camp has been visited by numerous SNS officials in recent days and joined by former members of the disbanded Special Operations Unit (JSO), whose commanders were convicted of war crimes and political assassinations during the Balkan Wars of the 1990s.

From the day this camp was set up, social media users claimed to have spotted members of the ruling SNS from their local communities at the camp and alleged that some of those posing as students were actually public sector employees.

Radio Free Europe reported that Serbs from Kosovo had also joined the camp, allegedly receiving daily allowances to do so.

'Like a casting call'

These claims were further supported by N1 television journalist Mladen Savatovic, who contacted a woman believed to be recruiting paid extras for the "student camp."

Pretending to be a 28-year-old seeking work, Savatovic said he was was told by a woman named Milena that, depending on the group he was assigned to — pretending to be a student or an older supporter — he could earn €50 ($54) or more.

"It was like a casting call. She said she needed to see what I looked like to know where to place me. She mentioned serious money and serious organization," Savatovic told DW.

When Savatovic revealed he was an undercover journalist, he said, Milena refused to say anything more and disappeared.

"What I couldn't uncover should now be investigated by authorities," said Savatovic. "They should question Milena and me to determine who's running this and what the true goal is. But based on past experiences, I doubt authorities will act."

Will Saturday be a turning point?

Meanwhile, students from across Serbia continue their march to Belgrade, intending to join Saturday's mass protest. Some expect that hundreds of thousands of students and citizens will take part.

Belgrade will be the final stop in a protest caravan that has passed through Serbia's three largest cities after the capital: Novi Sad, Kragujevac and Nis. Students have walked hundreds of kilometers, speaking with residents of small towns along the way to share their message and demands.

In the past week alone, the NGO Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability has reported 410 protests across Serbia. Since November, there has been some form of demonstration in over 400 cities, towns and villages nationwide.

Many believe the Belgrade protest could be a decisive moment — a "D-Day" after which nothing will be the same.

University professor Kleut, however, remains skeptical. 

"It is possible that we'll set a record for the number of people gathered in Belgrade, which would showcase the strength of student support. In that sense, it could be a historic day. But as far as being a 'D-Day' is concerned, that implies that everything will change or major political shifts will occur — I don't think that will happen," she said.

Can violence be prevented?

The government appears to be working to limit the scale of the protest. Early on Friday, reports emerged of alleged bomb threats on intercity train lines, leading to a cancelation of all intercity rail traffic on Friday and Saturday.

For his part, President Vucic has been trying to intimidate protesters, repeatedly warning of expected violence and saying that all perpetrators will face consequences.

"We're not relying on the goodwill of the mob. We have a state, and we'll show you what that means. Our units will withstand the hit, but then the state will respond appropriately — and all troublemakers will be arrested," he said.

The students, however, insist they have never called for violence and have urged the Interior Ministry to "relocate the group posing as students" to prevent potential clashes.

Students from the University of Novi Sad issued a statement, saying: "Students never assaulted citizens, never broke their jaws, never ran people over with cars, nor justified any form of violence. Students demand the rule of law, functional institutions and justice."

Kleut believes violence can be avoided if everyone follows the student organizers' instructions.

"What will be interesting to see is whether the protest's size pressures the government into concessions — such as the resignation of Chief Public Prosecutor Zagorka Dolovac or other moves that signal the government acknowledges the strength of student and citizen support," she said.

Students consider post-protest strategy

If that doesn't happen, Kleut believes the ball will be back in the students' court. Their assemblies, which have so far organized the students' protests, are now calling on citizens to adopt their model and organize their own civic assemblies. So far, however, that idea hasn't gained widespread traction.

"Some students are discussing a form of interim government — a government of public trust — urging the [country's] current leadership to step aside to create a framework where the judiciary and police can respond properly to student demands about the Novi Sad station [canopy collapse], and set the stage for fair elections," said Kleut.

The idea of a transitional, expert or trust-based government is nothing new and has, in fact, been circulating for months. Some opposition parties and informal groups have already proposed it.

But for the moment, student assemblies — which are widely regarded as having the greatest public support — are conducting all post-March 15 strategy discussions behind closed doors.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan