Strolling to Power

The battle reminded viewers of a mediocre box fight.

Fine Gael leader Michael Noonan needed to win Tuesday's head-to-head tv debate against the current Irish leader, Bertie Ahern, of Fianna Fail, by a knock-out. But the killer punch was never landed.

Instead, the televised debate showed two obviously nervous men bickering at each other incessantly, ignoring an exasperated moderator and boring an Irish audience.

The show proved symbolic for a remarkably uneventful election run-up which has focused mainly on the ruling centre-right Fianna Fail’s increasing success, and its only slightly more liberal counterpart Fine Gael, an opposition which has failed to live up to expectations as a truly opposing election rival.

Clear winner

This year’s election may not be a repetition of Fianna Fail’s 1977 record 50 per cent vote. But transfer patterns from smaller parties and independents, along with a weakened Fine Gael, may be the answer to Bertie Ahern’s dream of breaking a 25 year coalition drought.

With support at around 45 per cent, the current Taiosach – or Irish leader – Bertie Ahern (photo), and his party Fianna Fail looks set to win Friday’s election.

Bertie Ahern’s strength is most obvious in the preferred choice for Taoisech, with 69 per cent saying they want him, and not his election counterpart, Michael Noon of the Fine Gael party, as Irish leader. His popularity is spread across all segments of the electorate, with even 39 per cent of the rivalling Fine Gael party wanting him to lead the next government.

And while Fianna Fail’s popularity has risen by four points to 61 per cent in recent weeks, the personal satisfaction with the Taiosach is up by one point to a record 70 per cent.

Fine Gael failure

The story of the Irish elections has been the failure of Fine Gael to sell itself as the nucleus of an alternative government.

Fianna Fail based its election campaign on a twin strategy: promising that the good times would continue to roll, and threatening that a loose group of opposition parties would play havoc to the economy.

With Ireland’s recent econmic miracle in mind, voters appear to be looking upon the alternative, an amalgam of labour, Greens and Fine Gael, as too risky and unsure.

And Tuesday’s heated television debate could do little to change this opinion.

"Alice in Bertieland"

An obviously irritated Michael Noon said on Tuesday the Taiosach was indulging in "Alice in Bertieland" politics, having failed to fulfill any promises made in the previous 1997 elections. Noon went on to criticize the government’s stance on crime, offering stark images where young men are "kicked into comas" and "six women a week are being raped".

Ahern played the accusations down, pointing to the government’s success in fighting drug barons, the new anti-corruption legislation and a thriving economy.

But the economic outlook does not look as rosy as it did in the past years, and Ireland’s economy – one of the fastest growing in Europe – is starting to falter.

Several reports from the government’s own Economic and Social Research Institute and Ireland’s main employers’ organisation, the Irish Business and Employers Confederation, suggest that Ireland’s economy is far from a smooth ride.

Looking for a partner

As Fianna Fail is a reminder to voters of the good times, and is expected to win the vote, the question remains whether the elections will see a minority, or a majority government to power - and if Fianna Fail needs a coalition partner, who will be the one to join.

Ahern’s current coalition partners are the Progressive Democrats. But as one PD minister had to resign after not doing enough within his powers to nail a serial rapist, and another refused to compete in the elections, the PD is fighting for seats.

Labour, on the other hand, has proved more successful in the election run up. Labour has a current 10 per cent of votes, and looks set to become this year’s possible coalition candidate. But it may be challenged by Sinn Fein in working class areas, while Sinn fein offers a nationalism that could prove attractive to traditional Fianna fail voters.

The Greens, hoping to gain back their two seats in the current government, have little support in Europe’s green island.

Unpredicatable Irish

So far, voters have made it clear that they do not welcome a minority government. A Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrat coalition is the favoured option of 28 per cent of the electorate. In contrast, a single Fianna fail government takes 17 per cent of the vote.

On these figures, it seems the Irish may settle for much of the same. But as the Irish electorate is known to be unpredictable, whether they get it is another matter.