Pakistan: What's next for ex-PM Imran Khan?

Imran Khan, a former star athlete and popular conservative politician, is still behind bars in Pakistan due to what many of his supporters believe to be politically motivated charges. He was sentenced to a 14-year prison term this January, which led him to quit reconciliation talks that he and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party were conducting with the government at the time. 

Khan was removed from office in a parliamentary vote of confidence in April 2022, and subsequently arrested in August 2023.

Authorities are pursuing numerous cases against him, including allegations of corruption, abuse of power, and inciting violence against the state.

The PTI claims all the cases against Khan are politically motivated. Khan himself has accused military leaders and a "foreign conspiracy" of pushing him out of office.

He has embarked on an unprecedented campaign since his ouster, openly criticizing Pakistan's powerful generals — although they deny interfering in politics.

Khan overshadowed by rivals?

The 72-year-old politician still hopes to leave jail and eventually return to power. Despite being locked up, Khan has millions of supporters across Pakistan and can still rely on his personal charisma to incite them to action.

But the recent clashes with India over Kashmir seem to have tipped the scales.

According to public perception, Pakistan's military mounted a competent response to India's missile and drone attacks — and a survey by Gallup Pakistan found that 93% of respondents had a more favorable view of the military after the conflict.

The brief confrontation also prompted the government of Shehbaz Sharif to promote General Asim Munir, the chief of Pakistan's army and Khan's alleged rival. Munir was named field marshal "in recognition of the strategic brilliance and courageous leadership that ensured national security and decisively defeated the enemy."

PTI holds out hope for Khan

With the military enjoying a boost in popularity, Khan's hopes to regain his freedom seem to be growing ever more remote.

"Khan's short-term future is bleak. The military leadership is not incentivized or compelled to offer him a deal that paves the way for him to return to power," Najam Sethi, a veteran analyst, told DW. 

In turn, voices from within Khan's PTI party say that he may yet be released from prison — either by getting acquitted in the courts or via potential negotiations and backdoor discussions with the military leaders.

"Imran Khan's future, beyond any iota of doubt, is bright and linked with the future of Pakistan and its 240 million people who time and again have reposed their unwavering trust and confidence in his leadership as well as policies to steer Pakistan out of multi-pronged crisis," senior PTI official Sheikh Waqas Akram told DW. 

Khan denies talks with government, military

An online post on Khan's X account last week denied Khan was approached for any negotiations. Khan dismissed the reports of talks as "entirely false."

According to political commentator Asma Shirazi, Khan's future mostly hinges on his own behavior.

"Khan currently is not in a position of strength to negotiate his release as he was months ago, and there is very unlikely that he will come out of the jail due to several other pending cases against him," said Shirazi. 

Politicians to step in and negotiate Khan's release

Pakistan's military is seen as having an oversized political influence and has claimed direct control of the country multiple times since the end of British colonial rule in 1947.

But Akram, who serves as the secretary of information in Khan's PTI party, points out that Pakistan's armed forces are non-partisan and apolitical under the constitution.

"Linking popularity of the military after recent conflict with India to Chairman Imran Khan's release from illegal incarceration, to our view lacks any correlation," according to Akram.

This sentiment is echoed by Minister of State for Interior, Talal Chaudhry.

"Military leadership has made it clear that negotiations will take place with politicians and within the parliamentary forum," he told DW.

PTI faces leadership crisis

But Khan's push to return to power has to account for more than just the military and the current government of PM Sharif. With the former prime minister in jail, cracks within the PTI have grown increasingly visible, with factions within the party pursuing conflicting agendas. 

"Khan's party is riven by internal disputes; his supporters are fearful of crackdown by the establishment, hence unable to launch and sustain meaningful street protests," said analyst Sethi. 

Despite persistent rumors that the PTI is looking for backdoor negotiations with both the military and the government, PTI spokesperson Akrem said there are "no negotiations going on... for now" with the Sharif government, decrying it as a "non-elected, non-representative and fraudulent regime" in reference to the February 2024 election, which is disputed by the PTI.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic