Kim Jong Un's daughter: North Korea's next leader?

When Kim Jong Un first permitted domestic North Korean media to publish an image of his daughter, believed to be named Kim Ju Ae, in November 2022, it was widely presumed that the intention was to portray the "supreme leader" as a proud father and family man.   

Wearing a fashionable white padded jacket as she watched the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, there were no indications that she might ever be selected ahead of her two brothers as the future leader of a nation that the Kim clan has ruled with an iron fist since it was established by her great-grandfather, Kim Il Sung, in 1948.

Less than three years after she first appeared in state-run media, Kim Ju Ae, who is now believed to be 12 or 13 years old, has accompanied her father to Beijing to attend a military parade marking the end of World War II and meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

'Strongest candidate' to succeed her father

Analysts who not long ago suggested that it would be impossible for a woman to be the North's next supreme leader are now suggesting that, despite her tender years, this critical diplomatic mission could be her anointment on the world stage as heir to the world's only communist dynasty.

"This is a major international event and the first time that she is known to have visited a foreign country, so we have to see it as an indication that she is one of the strongest candidates to succeed her father — although that has not yet been decided," said Ahn Yinhay, a professor of international relations at Korea University in Seoul.  

Ahn admits that she was among the North Korea-watchers who initially never believed a woman could ever take on the mantle of leadership in a country that holds fast to a traditional way of life.

"I remember talking to some defectors from the North around that time, and they said they could not imagine a woman becoming Kim's successor," she told DW.

North Korea remains a very Confucianist society, with social and political structures based on strict hierarchies, including husband over wife and male over female.

That has been the unquestioned route for the previous transfers of power within the Kim dynasty, although the oldest son has not always assumed leadership, with rivalries in the past marked by politicking and even assassination. Yet, it has always been a male member of the family who becomes leader.

Kim Ju Ae might be about to upend that tradition.

There were signs earlier this year that her elevation was underway. In March, a report in state media about a visit to a farm described Kim Ju Ae as "a great person of guidance," an honorific usually reserved for the regime's most senior leaders.

'Respected daughter' title

Previously, Kim Ju Ae had been referred to as the "respected daughter" of Kim Jong Un and had been pictured alongside her father as he gave "guidance" at industrial facilities, military bases and during drills by the armed forces.

The regime has revealed virtually nothing more about her and what little is known comes from South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS), which suggests she enjoys horse riding, skiing and swimming.

In a report issued in January last year, the NIS stated for the first time that Kim Ju Ae had emerged as the "most likely" successor to her father, although it hedged by saying "many variables" remained.

Yet, some still believe that a female supreme leader would be a leap too far for North Korean society, even if it is the will of their dictator.

"There are many reasons why Kim wants his daughter to be seen close to him and I would still say that it is not easy for Kim Ju Ae to become leader," said Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University and the author of a number of books on the Kim dynasty.

"Kim is famously fearful of an assassination attempt and one theory is that he keeps his daughter close in the belief that the US would not be willing to kill her as well," he said. "Another reason is simply that he wants to show off his family to ordinary North Koreans, to show that he is a proud father who wants to do things with his daughter."

Will the military resist?

Shigemura also stressed that the tenets of Confucianism make it much harder for a woman to become a national leader.

He believes that the older men who have risen through the ranks of the North Korean military will resist the idea of taking orders from a female.

"Kim Ju Ae may be growing in power and knowledge within the ranks of the leadership in North Korea, but if in the future she is trying to become the leader, that means her father has died and she has lost a great deal of her support," he pointed out.

"There may be rivalries that we do not know about and more that emerge in the future. There will certainly be resistance from top political and military leaders. She has many challenges ahead of her."

Despite those challenges, Ahn said Kim Ju Ae is likely to follow in her father's footsteps if she is successful in inheriting his legacy — although there is also the possibility that she could be a more benevolent leader.

"Kim is training her to be a strong leader, in his image, but there is always the possibility that she could be a more relaxed and kind sort of ruler."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru