Israel-Iran war: A political lifeline for Netanyahu?

After a ceasefire between Israel and Iran took hold on Tuesday morning, albeit a fragile one, and streets and coffee shops in Jerusalem were busy again. By evening, Israel's Home Front Command had lifted all public restrictions.

At an open-air market, people were back shopping. Some were simply relieved that the 12-day war, which had frequently sent Israelis to bomb shelters, was over. 

"I feel a little relieved that we are not at war anymore. But it could also be tricky because we never know whom to trust. One day we are in a ceasefire, the next day there won't be a ceasefire anymore," shopper Liba Farkish told DW.

Many here said they were satisfied with the attack on Iran and praised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

"I think we attacked them at a perfect time, exactly what we needed to do. I think Netanyahu did the best he could. They were really close to having a weapon against us, and honestly, we were saved at the last minute," Adina Bier, a high school student, told DW.

Shop owner Avraham Levy, a veteran supporter of Netanyahu's Likud party, said what "Netanyahu did is not just for Israel, it's for the whole world. Iran is a radical religious regime whose aim is to eradicate Israel." 

About 82% of Jewish Israelis supported Israel's missile strikes on Iran and the timing of the attack, according to a recent flash survey by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. 

Netanyahu enjoys popularity bump

Just a month ago, Netanyahu's political fortunes seemed to have taken a hit. Israel's longest-serving prime minister, often referred to as "the magician" because of his ability to maneuver political crises, has faced mounting domestic and international criticism over his handling of the grinding war in Gaza and his apparent refusal to agree to a deal with Hamas to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

Now, Netanyahu can argue that he has delivered on his threat to attack Israel's archenemy and its nuclear program. Iran has long insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful, and US intelligence agencies have concluded that Tehran is not currently seeking to develop nuclear weapons. However, Israeli leaders have argued that Iran was close to assembling a nuclear weapon. 

The attack on Iran has helped to restore Netanyahu's image as a strongman after the massive security failures that led to the Hamas-led terror attacks on October 7, 2023. 

"Regarding the Iran attack, there are many unknowns, and we don't know all the details. But all the things that we've seen here since October 7, it's basically a master plan by the Iranians," Tal Schneider, a political correspondent for online outlet The Times of Israel, told DW. "And everybody understood that this needed to be taken care of. Nobody really trusted the diplomatic solution with them, only a military solution."

How much political leeway does Netanyahu have?

While recent polls suggest Netanyahu's Likud party gained more support in the wake of the perceived success of its military operation, the picture is more complicated. A closer look reveals that parties in Netanyahu's current coalition government are projected to fall far short of the 61-seat majority they would need to retain power. 

"Those polls suggested the situation for Netanyahu remains the same. He may have gotten some seats for his own party, but this came on the account of a close ally of his, the extreme right-wing Jewish Power Party of [Itamar] Ben-Gvir. It means that for Netanyahu, it doesn't give him much leeway for a new coalition after the next election," said Schneider.  

"He [Netanyahu] was not able to bring in voters from the center. So, people who oppose Netanyahu remained opposed to him. Even with the big military success and the big strategic success that no one is denying."

Iranian missile strikes killed 28 people and injured over 1,000, according to Israel's Public Diplomacy Directorate. In Iran, according to official numbers, 606 were killed, with 5,332 people wounded, although those figures are believed to be higher.

While Israeli commentators praised the military's performance in Iran, many questions remain as to whether the operation against the Iranian nuclear sites and its ballistic missile program was as successful as Netanyahu claimed. In a statement on Tuesday evening, he said Israel had "achieved a historic victory, which will stand for generations." 

Pressure on Netanyahu over Gaza war

Attention in Israel has now turned again to the war with Hamas in Gaza. On Wednesday morning, Israelis woke up to the news that seven soldiers had been killed in southern Gaza. Israel's national broadcaster Kan reported that they were inside an armored personnel carrier that caught fire because of an explosive device attached to it.  

"Sometimes you simply need to do the right thing. Trump did it. If Trump could do it, so can you. You need to put an end, here and now, to the needless war in Gaza," Ben Caspit, a veteran Israeli journalist, wrote in the daily Maariv newspaper, addressing Netanyahu in his article and referencing the US president.

"The best of our sons are dying there now, and for what? The destruction of more 'terrorist infrastructure'? Are you for real? Do you hear yourself?"

Polls have consistently shown large support for a hostage deal with Hamas in Gaza to return the remaining 50 hostages — alive and dead — and which would also include the cessation of hostilities. 

"It's important for Netanyahu to get to some solution here because what we found out is a majority of his supporters think that the hostages should be brought home, even if this means a cessation of the war, not termination of the war," Tamar Herman, a senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, told DW. "So if he wants to increase his support, he should do something in this regard."

This view was echoed by some people on the streets of Jerusalem. 

"We lost just seven soldiers in Gaza. We are past that state with Hamas. We should try to make a deal, but on Israel's terms, we should not let them mess with us anymore. We own this land, it's our people, we need to get them back, we just need to find the right terms," said high school student Adina Bier. 

Netanyahu's critics have long accused him of not wanting to end the war, claiming that he was unwilling to agree to a new deal with Hamas that would secure the release of the remaining hostages. His far-right coalition partners threatened to leave the coalition if he ended the war without toppling Hamas, which would have triggered early elections in Israel. 

"He needs to solve the problem in Gaza before he solves our problems in Iran. The most important thing: Gaza and the hostages," said Inbal Leibovitch.

Edited by: Rob Mudge