How close is Iran to getting a nuclear bomb?

Israel has justified its recent attacks on Iranian targets by saying that Tehran is too close to developing a nuclear bomb. Such a development would undoubtedly pose an existential threat to Israel, as the Iranian regime has repeatedly declared its intention to destroy Israel.

While Tehran insists its nuclear program serves only civilian purposes, many members of the international community see military potential in it. 

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Sunday that Tehran's nuclear program is an "existential threat" to both Israel and Europe, while emphasizing that diplomacy remained the best way to reach a resolution.

Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on Saturday that Berlin, Paris, and the UK were ready for talks with Tehran to de-escalate the situation. 

How advanced is Iran's nuclear program?

There are two types of nuclear programs: Civilian and military. Civilian programs are focused solely on nuclear power plants to generate electricity, while military programs aim to build nuclear warheads — in other words, atomic bombs.

The Iranian regime has consistently claimed its nuclear program is exclusively civilian in nature — and most experts and Western intelligence agencies agree that Iran is currently not building a nuclear weapon.

However, Iran's uranium enrichment levels may be cause for concern. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has accumulated than 400 kilograms (881 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60%. That level of enrichment far exceeds what is needed for civilian energy production — and is close to weapons-grade material.

At 90% enrichment, those 400 kilograms would be weapons-grade — enough for approximately 10 nuclear warheads.

"As confirmed by the IAEA, Iran accelerated its enrichment to 60%, plus [there has been] a rise in missile tests," security expert Hans Jakob Schindler from the Counter Extremism Project told DW. "You could say this was to further its negotiation position with the United States, but you could also look at it and say [Tehran] is running towards a [nuclear] bomb.”

Talks between Iran and the US were scheduled to continue in Oman, but have now been shelved due to the latest escalation.

There is currently no confirmed evidence that Iran has enriched uranium to 90%. However, experts warn that the country could reach that threshold relatively quickly, given its stockpile and technical capabilities. Just days before Israel's attack, Tehran announced plans to bring another uranium enrichment facility online.

Enriched uranium alone does not make a bomb. Iran would also need to build a functioning warhead and a missile capable of delivering it.

How significant is the setback for Iran from Israel's attacks?

In its attacks, Israel targeted not only nuclear facilities but also members of Iran's military leadership and scientists involved in the nuclear program.

Satellite images indicate varying levels of destruction at two key research and enrichment facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. The IAEA has confirmed damage to both facilities. The full extent of the destruction and how difficult it would be for Iran to repair is unclear.

Walter Posch, an Iran expert at the Vienna Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management, told DW the overall impact was "serious" for Iran.

"[What's] more important than the generals who were killed are certainly the nuclear scientists ... [They] have accompanied the [nuclear] program from almost its inception, they have all the institutional knowledge," he explained.

"They play a key role ... so on the level of academic experience and practical knowledge ... this is a serious blow."

In addition to nuclear facilities and the military and scientific elite, missile bases have also been among the targets of Israeli bombs in Iran.

Why does Iran have a nuclear program?

Iran's nuclear program dates back to the 1950s, when the then pro-Western government began developing a civilian nuclear program with the help of the US.

After the 1979 Iranian Revolution brought a fundamentalist, anti-Western government to power, international concerns grew that Tehran might use its nuclear program for military purposes.

In 2002, international inspectors discovered highly enriched uranium at the Natanz nuclear facility, which led to international sanctions. 

In 2015, Iran reached a landmark deal with the US and other Western countries, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement limited Iran's nuclear program and imposed strict controls in exchange for the easing of sanctions.

However, US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 during his first term, criticizing it as merely temporary and failing to address Iran's ballistic missile program. The US then imposed new sanctions on Iran.

In response, Iran gradually scaled back from its compliance with the agreement and significantly increased its uranium enrichment beyond the 3.67% limit set under the 2015 deal.

Since Trump's second term, there have been renewed efforts to reach an agreement between Washington and Tehran. A new meeting between delegations from both sides was scheduled to take place in the coming days in the Gulf state of Oman but was canceled due to the current situation.

Edited by: J. Wingard