Indo-Afghan relations

DW-WORLD.DE: Afghanistan and India have signed an agreement to strengthen military and economic cooperation. Kabul has referred to the pact as a big success. Is it that?

Jochen Hippler: Sure, it is a big success for the Afghan government. Afghanistan has now established stronger ties with a long-time partner. There will be economic advantages, increased foreign aid and, more important for Afghan politics, it will give Kabul more diplomatic leeway on the international stage. All in all, the new agreement means Afghanistan has won another important ally in addition to the US.

On the other hand it must be said that Pakistan has always been against close cooperation between India and Afghanistan; Pakistan shares disputed borders with India and Afghanistan. How do you think Islamabad will react?

Pakistan is not very happy over the development. And it is becoming clear that there is no way around Islamabad when it comes to solving the conflict in Afghanistan – that is a big problem Kabul is currently faced with. Pakistan has a lot of influence on insurgents in Afghanistan. And now Pakistan might fear losing its influence in the country. Islamabad could react by strengthening its support for the insurgents to prove there can be no peace in Afghanistan without Pakistan. All in all, the new Indo-Afghan contract will open new doors to positive cooperation, but also open them to new drawbacks.

That means the pact might further destabilize the region and increase competition for resources?

I don't think it has much to do with resources for India and Pakistan. Both countries are looking for secure access to resource rich Central Asia. And all of the possible routes go through Afghanistan. So, in that sense, I do believe that India has some interest in seeing Pakistan weakened. Both India and Pakistan have been at war with each other for decades. Pakistan is not very likely to stand by and watch its biggest rivals strengthen ties with each other. So it is possible that it will strain Indo-Pak and Pak-Afghan relations.

The US is said to have encouraged India and Afghanistan to work more closely together. Are Washington, New Delhi and Kabul trying to pick a fight with Islamabad?

Relations between Washington und Islamabad have worsened. Take the drone attacks and the unilateral US military operation that killed Osama bin Laden, which was carried out behind Islamabad's back. To add to that, Washington has preferred India to Pakistan for years now – partly for economic reasons, but also for strategic ones. It is a fact that India one of the top emerging economies after China right now; there is a great potential for electronics and software development. Pakistan, on the other hand, is more a pawn on the chess board that is the Afghan war. Islamabad is surely not happy to see the US strengthening ties with Delhi.

Will Pakistan now turn to China to seek a counterbalance?

That is possibile. But seeking closer ties with China could jeopardize Pakistan's potential. China's politics are driven by its own interests. In other words, China will be a reliable partner, but only if it gets something out of the relationship. Beijing is not going to get further involved in the war in Afghanistan no matter what Islamabad wants. But Pakistan has other options aside from turning to China. It could start instigating more conflict in Afghanistan to demonstrate to the international community that peace in the region is not possible without Pakistan and that it cannot simply be replaced by Delhi.

Dr. Jochen Hippler is a political scientist and an outside lecturer at the Duisburg-Essen University's Institute for Development and Peace (INEF).

Interview: Ratbil Shamel / sb
Editor: Grahame Lucas