Germany's likely new government makes a risky gambit

The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the center-right Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) — currently trying to form the new German government — want to take out unprecedented amounts of new debt.

To do this, they have to change Basic Law, Germany's constitution, which can only be achieved with the approval of two-thirds of the members of the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament.

The newly elected Bundestag convenes for the first time on March 25. Due to an election reform, parliament has shrunk from 736 MPs to 630, and in the February 23 election, the balance of power has changed. Many MPs will no longer be there, as the center-left parties that made up the outgoing government substantially lost voter support.

In the new parliament, the center-left and center-right have dwindled, and the far left and far right hold more than one-third of the seats.

On February 11, Bundestag President Bärbel Bas (SPD) ended what was thought to be the last session of the old parliament. "We are at the end of today's session and thus also at the end of an extraordinary parliamentary term," she said at the time. It was extraordinary above all because the coalition of the SPD, Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) collapsed in November 2024, one year before the end of its term.

The Greens are tipping the scales

However, it is precisely this old parliament that is now to convene two more times before the new parliament takes office on March 25. The unusual two extra sessions of the outgoing Bundestag are being brought to vote on a change in the constitution to enable the CDU/CSU and SPD to secure additional funds to boost the military and invest in the country's ailing infrastructure.

While negotiations on forming a new government have only just begun, the old parliament is to relax the debt brake enshrined in the constitution quickly. This would pave the way for significantly more money being invested in the military and a so-called special fund of €500 billion ($546 billion) to get the ailing infrastructure up and running.

Together with the Green Party, the SPD and CDU/CSU could approve the constitutional changes required. Whether this will happen remains to be seen. The Greens are still part of the caretaker government but are already preparing for their future role in the opposition after their defeat in the Bundestag elections with just 11.6%.

Voter deception?

The Greens have said they are not inclined to help their political opponents without anything in return. Especially as the CDU/CSU and their candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had categorically ruled out a reform of the debt brake, while the Greens, SPD and the Left Party have long been demanding just that.

"If the CDU and CSU rule something out before the election, campaign on it and then no longer feel bound by it within a week of the election, we can speak of voter deception," political scientist Hans Vorländer, the Director of the Dresden Center for Constitutional and Democratic Research told the epd press service.

He says it would be wise to separate the issue of increasing funds for the Bundeswehr and additional funds for the infrastructure and questions the wisdom of letting the old parliament make decisions that will reach far into the future.

The US change of strategy in the Ukraine war under President Donald Trump and the resulting possible break in the transatlantic security partnership is creating pressure to act, Vorländer explained. However, the problem of ailing infrastructure has been known for a long time and there is no reason to let the outgoing parliament decide quickly on public borrowing over the next ten, he continued.

The former President of the Federal Constitutional Court, Hans-Jürgen Papier, has a similar view of the measures planned by the prospective new government. He told the Funke Mediengruppe newspapers that the special loan for infrastructure is hard to justify. "Special funds lead to excessive spending and a bloated state apparatus," he warned.

Legal challenge

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party have already taken the issue to the Constitutional Court. Both parties significantly improved their results in the Bundestag elections on February 23 and can use their votes to block constitutional amendments in the future parliament.

"It is a disregard for the voters and legally questionable to reconvene the old Bundestag just because the CDU/CSU and SPD do not like the majorities in the new one," said Christian Görke, Parliamentary Secretary of the Left Party.

"Only the newly elected Bundestag can and may make such decisions,"  said AfD lawmaker Stephan Brandner.

Former judge Hans-Jürgen Papier does not expect the court to act. "Legally, I have no problem with reforming the debt brake with the old majorities," he said, referring to Article 39 of the Basic Law. According to this, the electoral term ends when the new parliament convenes. "The Bundestag currently in office is therefore still fully democratically legitimized," Papier said.

Future generations will be burdened

Democracy researcher Hans Vorländer has no doubts about this either. The Bundestag is sovereign and can do as it pleases. Nevertheless, he has his reservations about the long-term impact of the rise in public borrowing:

"Future generations are being burdened in an unacceptable way," he warned.

Meanwhile, Bas, the president of the old Bundestag, has issued invitations to the first special session on March 13. Perhaps some of the lawmakers will remember the words she spoke in her farewell speech: "This country has already successfully mastered many challenges. It is not least up to us, the members of the German Bundestag, to strengthen confidence in liberal democracy," Bas said.

This article was originally written in German.

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