Germany: Voter trust in US and Israel decreasing

Thursday's White House meeting between Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Donald Trump was highly anticipated and top news in Germany. Just under half of the eligible German voters taking part in the monthly Deutschlandtrend survey expected Merz to find a good rapport with the US president.  A similar number also said Merz did not have enough diplomatic skills to deal with the foreign policy challenges of his new role.

This is the result of the latest Deutschlandtrend, a representative survey of 1,292 eligible German voters conducted for public broadcasting network ARD by pollsters infratest dimap in early June.

Which countries can Germany rely on?

Germany has close relations with the United States and also with Israel. However, respondents see relations as becoming more distanced. France and Ukraine are currently seen as much more reliable partners.

The vast majority — 84% — of those surveyed thought that Russia could not be relied upon, and 73% said the same of the US. Israel was also classified as no longer reliable by a clear majority. Only 16% of respondents still regarded Israel as a partner that Germany can rely on — an 11% drop compared with October 2024.

Significant criticism of Israel

The impact of Israel's military reaction to the attack by the militant group Hamas in October 2023 was evident in the survey. The European Union as well as the United States, Germany and several other countries classify Hamas as a terrorist organization. The Israeli course of action in Gaza has gone too far, according to 63% of respondents, while 18% thought it was appropriate.

Seventy-seven percent of respondents thought it was right that Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized Israel for its current military conduct in Gaza. Only one in eight thought Germany should unconditionally support Israel in the Gaza conflict. Fifty-five percent of the respondents do not agree that Germany has a greater responsibility to protect Israel because of its history.

Almost exactly as many respondents blame Israel for the situation faced by Palestinian civilians in Gaza as blame Hamas. Accordingly, most respondents favored a reconsideration of German military assistance: 43% supported restricting weapons exports to Israel, and a further 30% wanted a complete stop.

Friedrich Merz gains favor, but view of government cautious

Germany's new government of the conservative Union of Christian Democrats, Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) has been in office since May. Forty percent of those surveyed were satisfied with the coalition's first few weeks in office. The former tripartite coalition of the SPD, environmentalist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) had a higher approval rating during its early days at the start of 2022, when it reached 46%.

On the other hand, Friedrich Merz of the CDU has gained considerable popularity since taking office as Germany's chancellor. Of those surveyed, 39% were satisfied with his work, up 14% since April. Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, of the SPD, also has a 39% approval rating. The only high-profile German politician who most citizens are satisfied with remains Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD).

The public's expectations of the new government's policies are not significantly different from what they were straight after the snap federal election held in February.

Half of those surveyed trust the new leadership to strengthen the German economy. About the same number expect better representation of German interests in the world. Skepticism of the government's ability to increase domestic security and effectively manage migration has increased slightly.

CDU/CSU extends its lead over the AfD

If new elections were to be held this week, the CDU/CSU would, with 29%, have a slightly better result than they did in previous polling. The SPD, which is in coalition with the Union, would be down slightly, with 15% of the vote (-1).

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would be unchanged with 23% of the vote (the general election had them at 20.8%). The Greens and the socialist Left Party would now win 12% and 9% respectively. All other parties would not meet the required 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag parliament, including the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the FDP, which both remain at 4%.

This article was originally written in German.

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