Germany has voted: What's next?

The election is over — now the work of forming a government begins. With the current geopolitical situation in Europe in upheaval, it would behoove Germany's political parties to put together a coalition as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, history suggests that the process could take weeks.

Here's what will happen next.

Building a coalition

If any party had gained more than 50% of the vote it would have enough representatives to take control of the German parliament, the Bundestag, and therefore elect a chancellor to form a government. But that has never happened since the foundation of the Federal Republic in 1949, and Germans have long since gotten used to coalition governments.

The coalition negotiations among the parties can take weeks. Typically, the parties send teams specializing in different issues — including the economy, immigration and the environment — to initial meetings with their counterparts in the other parties to look for common ground. These are called Sondierungsgespräche ("sounding-out talks").

If those talks are promising, the actual coalition negotiations begin. At the end of that process, the parties hash out a "coalition contract," a kind of statement of intent that sets out the policy direction of the government in many different issues. The last coalition contract, drawn up in 2021 for the outgoing government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, was more than 170 pages.

Another element of the coalition talks is deciding which party gets to take over which cabinet post — and what policy areas those ministries will cover. For instance, in Scholz's Cabinet, the Green Party's Robert Habeck was Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, though the next chancellor may decide that the "Climate Action" part may be removed.

Who gets to be chancellor?

The Basic Law, the German constitution, stipulates that the first session of the new Bundestag must take place within 30 days after the election. This time, that means by March 25.

Traditionally, the candidate of the party gaining the most votes will become chancellor and the leading candidate of the junior coalition partner is often tapped to become foreign minister. The chancellor presents the names of the ministers and their portfolios to the president, who appoints the members of government.

Any German citizen who is at least 18 years old can become chancellor. They don't need to have a seat in the Bundestag.

The candidate for chancellor needs to win an absolute majority of the votes (50% +1). If the candidate fails to achieve this tally, the members of the Bundestag can pick another candidate and put them forward for another vote within a fortnight. Again, an absolute majority is required.

If no candidate wins an absolute majority in the second round of voting, a final ballot is held immediately. Whoever receives the most votes in that round is elected.

If the chancellor is elected with an absolute majority, the president must appoint him or her within seven days. If the elected person only achieves a simple majority in the third round, the president may either appoint him or her within seven days or dissolve the Bundestag, triggering a fresh election, which must take place within 60 days.

Contesting an election

According to German election law, every German voter can contest the validity of the election, as can groups of voters. There are hundreds of challenges to the results after every election.

Objections must be made in writing to the election review commission with the Bundestag in Berlin within two months of election day.

The Election Review Commission processes all submissions. A decision is made on each individual challenge, and each objector receives a written response from the Bundestag.

For the results of a Bundestag election to be declared invalid, an objection must meet two requirements: First, there must be an electoral error that violates the Federal Election Act, the Federal Election Code or the Constitution. Secondly, the reported electoral error would have to have an impact on the distribution of seats in the Bundestag.

The commission usually needs about a year to process all appeals, and less than 4% of the cases reach the Constitutional Court. A German general election has never been declared invalid.

Under normal circumstances, the general election is held every four years, and then it's back to square one.

It usually takes several weeks, if not months until a new government takes office in Germany. The previous government and its chancellor remains in office in a caretaker capacity until then.

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

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