Will Germany change course on sanctioning Israel over Gaza?

During an informal meeting of foreign ministers of European Union states in Copenhagen over the weekend, one of the topics discussed — yet again — was whether and how to sanction Israel for its actions during the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Although the degree of Israel's criminal behavior is still being debated, the majority of observers no longer dispute that the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, launched after the October 2023 attack on Israel by the Hamas militant group, has resulted in violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

There is a "growing majority" of countries that support sanctions against Israel, the EU's foreign affairs boss, Kaja Kallas, said recently. But Europe's top diplomats were unable to reach any kind of consensus. And some privately expressed frustration with EU nations blocking sanctions on Israel.

One of these is Germany. 

After the Copenhagen meeting, Kallas told DW that the EU was in constant contact with Israel and was pressuring them to allow more aid into Gaza. "There are things that are improved," she noted, "but it's not enough. It's frustrating that we can't do more."

Various measures have been discussed, including a suspension of the EU-Israel association agreement, a trade pact, or preventing Israeli companies from participating in the EU's Horizon research fund or directly sanctioning Israeli settlers.

Some of these would require a qualified majority to pass — that is, support from 55% of EU member states, that represent at least 65% of the EU's population. This is why Germany — the bloc's most populus member — is so important to the vote. 

But so far, senior German politicians, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, have mostly restricted themselves to saying that Israel should act within the bounds of international law. Some German arms exports have been restricted but may resume in the future, and any trade embargo or other kinds of sanctions have been rejected.

As the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt put it in a May 2025 commentary, Germany's role has mostly been limited to "criticism without consequences."

Germany has a historical responsibility to the state of Israel because of the Holocaust. But at the same time, pressure is mounting for Germany to take some sort of action.

What could make the German government change its mind? In reply to that question, a government spokesperson directed DW to previous comments made by Merz but did not provide a direct answer.

Could voters play a role?

Polls indicate that German voters are increasingly opposed to Germany sending arms to Israel.

In the latest Politbarometer survey, regularly commissioned by public broadcaster ZDF, 76% of Germans say they believe Israel's actions in Gaza are not justified. The same poll shows 83% of Germans think their government should stop or limit arms exports to Israel. Other surveys indicate Germans hold less favorable views of Israel now.

At least some of these opinions are not new. For over a year, surveys have indicated that a majority of Germans feel this way.

But at a June press conference, when a government spokesperson was asked about that, he replied, "public sentiment is not a deciding factor for such very fundamental decisions."

"Honestly, it's hard to imagine what could change Germany's position," Rene Wildangel, an independent expert on the Middle East and former policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.

"Ever since Chancellor Merz announced a partial arms ban in August and came under fire from several members of his own party, Germany has been extremely defensive," he said."The only chance that I see is that more and more Germans go out in the streets and make their voices heard. Because looking at the polls, a wide majority rejects Israel's actions in Gaza."

Domestic political pressure growing

Over the last few months, German politicians from across the spectrum have also been speaking out more on the topic.

The Left party, which is in opposition, has pushed for a suspension of the EU-Israel association agreement and an end to arms exports.

"These issues are already being discussed publicly, and I suspect pressure in Germany will continue to grow," said Katja Hermann, an expert on the region at the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, which is associated with the Left party.

More recently, some members of the center-left Social Democrats, or SPD, have also started to suggest more concrete measures. The SPD is the junior partner in the current coalition government, headed by the conservative Christian Democrats, or CDU.

Earlier this year, the SPD branch in Berlin passed a resolution formally urging the coalition government to do more. That included not blocking the suspension of the EU association agreement with Israel.

Merz and Wadephul, both members of the CDU, have criticized Israel's actions in Gaza. But when it comes to EU-level sanctions, the CDU and CSU, the CDU's Bavarian sister party, insist the best way to influence Israel away from what one politician called its "misguided path" is through their close relationship with the country. 

International pressure on Germany

Observers say Germany is becoming increasingly isolated within the EU on this topic.

For example, in May this year, two-thirds of EU states wanted to review the bloc's association agreement with Israel because of allegations of human rights violations in Gaza. Germany opposed a review. 

After the weekend meeting in Copenhagen, the isolation is becoming increasingly clear, says Martin Kobler, Germany's former ambassador to Egypt, Iraq and Pakistan, now retired, and a member of Diplomats Without Borders.

"Even the Dutch want to take a harder line now," Kobler told DW. "And of course, if you're isolated in a political question like this, that requires you to invest more and more on justification." 

On the other hand, Kober continued, other EU states understand Germany's constrained position with regard to Israel, due to the country's history. "But the security of Israel does not need to mean the security of the Netanyahu government," Kobler said. 

Legal implications, international crimes

Another diplomat told DW off the record the German government has definitely sought legal advice because of fears that supporting Israel might mean German complicity in war crimes, even genocide. Earlier this week, the International Association of Genocide Scholars stated that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza.

There are several legal cases that could involve Germany in such allegations, including in the International Court of Justice in The Hague as well as in domestic courts.

"Our organization is directly testing Germany's obligations under international law in German courts," explains Alexander Schwarz, a lawyer with the Berlin-based European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights, or ECCHR. In mid-November the ECCHR will go back to court in Berlin to ask again about the legality of past German weapons deliveries to Israel.

"If just one of these proceedings ends, and entails specific measures that need to be taken by complicit countries like Germany, that would have an impact," Schwarz told DW.

"There has been a slight wind of change in Germany recently," he conceded, "but the German government has passed so many red lines over the past 23 months, that it might be wise to be a bit pessimistic about them changing voluntarily. 

But I assume a final red line would be any court, whether domestic or international, saying that Germany — by delivering arms — is violating international law or is complicit in the crime of genocide."

Rosie Birchard in Copenhagen contributed to this article.

Edited by: Kate Hairsine