Europe turns to Germany's Merz for leadership and stability

Friedrich Merz will need to hit the ground running. The leader of the conservative Christian Democratic alliance (CDU-CSU) looks set to become German chancellor after his party emerged victorious, though not as strong as they had hoped, in Germany's federal election on Sunday.

At 69, Merz has long been an influential voice on the right wing of Germany's conservative bloc, but has never served as minister. By all accounts, he is likely to assume the reins of power in Berlin during what many are hailing as an epochal shift in transatlantic relations.

"For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the United States," Merz said Sunday, after the CDU/CSU scored around 29% of votes.

In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has pulled the rug out from under Europe's feet, holding talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine— without Ukrainian or European representatives.

With Trump in the White House, expert observers are speaking of the end of the era where Europe could depend on the US to underwrite its security.

Merz has been particularly candid about the US president. Ahead of polling day, he told German broadcaster ZDF that it was necessary to prepare for the "possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO's mutual defense commitment unconditionally."

What's the view from abroad?

From leaders elsewhere in Europe, the congratulations were almost immediately coupled with demands.

"Looking forward to working with you in this crucial moment for our shared security," NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte wrote in a post to Merz on X, formerly Twitter, late Sunday. "It's vital that Europe step up on defense spending, and your leadership will be key."

On Monday in Brussels, EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas stressed that time was of the essence. "The German people have made a choice, and now they need to put together the government," she said as foreign ministers gathered.

"I hope that they do it as fast as possible because we really need to move on with the decisions on the European level that require German participation," she said.

But Kallas, and the rest of Europe, will need to be patient just a little longer. Merz and the CDU/CSU will now enter coalition talks. First and foremost, the Christian Democrats will be speaking to the Social Democratic party of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who scored around 16% of the vote. The Greens, who dropped down to 11%, may also be relevant.

Those talks won't be easy. Over the past decade, the SPD has seen its vote share tumble as it teamed up with the Christian Democrats for a so-called "Grand Coalition" of the two major German political parties, and then in an unpopular coalition with the Greens and the neoliberal FDP.

On Monday, Merz told German media he was aiming to have a government in around two months. SPD leaders have signaled that their entry into coalition government is not a given, and Scholz has said he will play no role in the next government.

Reboot for Franco-German engine?

According to Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations, French officials are looking forward to a change of occupant in the Chancellery. "The Franco-German engine […] was largely dysfunctional under Scholz, probably an all-time low in the bilateral relationship," he wrote in a statement on Monday.

"[In addition] Germany seems to have avoided the worst-case scenarios of a minority government, and that the rise of AfD is contained," he added, referring to the far-right Alternative for Germany party.

The AfD scored a stunning 20.8%, but looks set to be sidelined from coalition talks despite some positive overtures from Merz in recent weeks on migration policy. These were poorly received in Germany.

Under the outgoing tripartite coalition led by Scholz, Germany was perceived by European partners as hamstrung and concerned with domestic politics. In Brussels, there is hope for more decisive leadership from Berlin, according to Rafael Loss of the ECFR.

"Merz will likely take over Germany's Chancellery backed by a more cohesive coalition than Scholz's," he told DW in an emailed statement.

"This minimizes the risk of coalition deadlock forcing Germany to abstain or change its vote on short notice in Brussels negotiations. On the other hand, Merz will likely clash with the European Commission on issues such as climate and migration," Loss said. In general, he added, his arrival strengthens the political right in Europe.

Digging deep for defense

In light of Trump's comments and actions in recent weeks, the debate about increased defense spending in Europe has taken on renewed urgency. The European Commission estimates the EU needs to spend €500 billion ($523 billion) over the next decade to shore up its defenses.

One hotly watched topic will be whether Merz could throw his weight behind joint EU borrowing to finance a militarization investment spree. Scholz has vehemently rejected this prospect, while Merz has indicated more openness.

Whatever his own personal willingness, a lot would depend on whether Merz can garner the necessary two-thirds support of the German Bundestag to drop the country's constitutionally enshrined "debt brake," which obliges the government to balance its books. Another option at the EU level might be to loosen the bloc's shared fiscal rules.

Too tough on Washington?

In the meantime, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys signaled to DW that Merz's talk of total independence from Washington might be premature.

"For now, there is no substitute to US presence in Europe, to US capabilities that we simply lack. Even if we start spending [...] 5% right now this year for our defense needs, we cannot build those capabilities even in five or 10 years," he told DW in Brussels on Monday.

"If NATO collapses, if all the security architecture collapses, everyone is in danger and everyone will face […] existential threats," he said, adding that Germany would also be exposed.

In addition, Budrys reiterated a call for Germany to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons, something the outgoing administration in Berlin ruled out in a bid to avoid an escalation of the war.

As coalition talks unfold in the coming weeks, Germany's partners will be watching closely for signs of movement.

Rosie Birchard contributed reporting to this article.

Edited by: M. Cavanagh