German election: Merz's CDU/CSU strives to build coalition

In the wake of a conservative victory and an ever-more assertive far-right, DW's Sabine Kinkartz and Nina Werkhäuser look at what Sunday's vote results mean for the future of Europe's largest economy and its people. 

After underperforming in the vote, the CDU/CSU will depend on a coalition partner of partners to govern. Still, having vowed not to work with the second-place AfD, Merz may have limited room to maneuver. 

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel on Sunday, proclaimed, "We have doubled! They wanted to halve us, but the opposite has happened." She said the CDU/CSU would only be able to fulfill election promises like ending irregular migration, by working with the AfD.

"You can hold out your hand as much as you like," CDU leader Merz told Weidel, who said her party stood ready to govern. 

Weidel has promised that the AfD will use its heft as Germany's largest opposition force to put pressure on the government, saying, "We will hound the others so they make sensible policies for our country."

With its old government on its way out and Merz promising "change," Germany's path forward is currently less than certain, with massive problems such as economic crisis, immigration, a rightward voting shift and Germany's changing role in Europe and the world with the return of Donald Trump and a possible US withdrawal from the world stage looming largest.

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David McAllister — a member of the Christian Democrats' (CDU) party executive and the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament — told DW's chief political editor, Michaela Küfner, that "in these geopolitical times, we simply have no time to waste" on lengthy coalition negotiations. 

Asked about where the process of building a stable new government is, McAllister said, "We are now at the beginning of coalition negotiations. We will approach the Social Democrats (SPD) and what we have to do is, as a new government, restore confidence in Germany and also restore confidence in our democracy."

He said it was important that major centrist parties like the CDU/CSU and SPD band together to fix the nation's problems and restore trust in their ability to govern, "because the worrying part of last night's election is definitely that the extremists now have nearly one-third of the votes in Germany."

"If we solve the problems Germany is facing, then the fringes, who have very simple answers to very complex questions, will lose their business," said McAllister, "but we have to deliver," he added. 

McAllister said the outgoing and incoming chancellors would coordinate important international decisions during the transition phase.

"Germany is the largest country in the European Union, the strongest economy, and together with France and Poland, we play a crucial role in Europe. And what we need is a German government, which is capable of taking decisions, is capable of action at a national, at a European and at an international level," he said. 

"Friedrich Merz has said, from the first day in office, he will make sure that Germany plays the role we are supposed to play as the largest member state in the European Union, in close cooperation with our partners in Europe."

When asked when we should expect to see a new government in place, McAllister said: "I can't tell you how long it will take. [….] But I want to be very clear here. We don't have any time to lose. And that's why the sooner we have a new government, the sooner Friedrich Merz is the new Chancellor of Germany. Definitely the better. Not only for Germany, but also for Europe."

In Germany, the federal government and the 16 states (Länder) are obliged to balance their budgets and are practically prohibited from taking out extra loans.

No other G7 country has such strict limits on new borrowing. The rules are enshrined in Germany's constitution, the Basic Law, and apply — with minor differences — at both the state and federal level.

Article 109 of the Basic Law, paragraph 3, states: "The budgets of the Federation and the Länder shall, in principle, be balanced without revenue from credits." This means the state may only spend as much money as it takes in, primarily from taxes and levies. This requirement is known colloquially as the "debt brake."

The brake was introduced in 2009, under then Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück (SPD). It came at the height of a global financial and economic crisis involving much discussion about national debt.

In a speech to state premiers at the time, Steinbrück spoke of a "decision of historic significance — a decision that should secure the state's financial capacity to act, particularly concerning intergenerational justice."

The law's introduction was contentious: Greens and the Left argued the inability to take on debt limited the state's ability to act. Those who favored it argued that servicing interest payments would in fact impede the state's ability to act — noting that it would burden future generations.

The debt brake is not absolute, at least not for the federal government.

While an outright ban on debt applies to the states, the federal government is permitted net borrowing amounting to a maximum of 0.35% of economic output.

The Basic Law also allows the debt brake to be suspended "for natural disasters or unusual emergencies beyond governmental control and substantially harmful to the state's financial capacity."

The federal government delivered balanced budgets from 2014 to 2019. Then came the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which led to the invocation of an "extraordinary emergency situation." The Bundestag suspended the debt brake several times, and the government was able to borrow billions.

A debate has erupted on whether the debt brake should be reformed. Economists in favor argue the rule hampers infrastructure and future-oriented technologies investments.

Any reform requires a two-thirds Bundestag majority.

Friedrich Merz and the CDU, the winners of yesterday's German federal election, are attempting to quickly assemble a governing coalition 

One major issue that has haunted past governments and continues to loom over talks now, is the so-called Schuldenbremse, or debt brake, which limits the government from spending more than it takes in.

A two-thirds majority would be required to change the law — which critics say, among other things, is keeping Germany from investing enough in self-defense.  

The Greens are calling for the current government to deal with the issue before Merz takes the helm.

Merz, too, has said he would not be opposed to a reform as well as being open to creating a special fund to finance Ukraine aid. The SPD has voiced skepticism over the plan.

The problem facing Merz when he takes over is that he will likely face parliamentary minorities with the power to block legislation.

When it comes to the debt brake, two camps have already clearly defined their positions.

The far-right AfD and its co-chair Alice Weidel has staked her claim as a defender of the policy, saying German taxpayer money must be dealt with "reasonably" and that "we have to use an iron broom to sweep away" wasteful government programs and concentrate of "core" issues.

Jan van Aken, co-leader of the resurgent Left Party, said his party would "not allow itself to be blackmailed" and would not take part in "dirty deals" such as adjusting the debt brake in return for more defense spending or the relaxing of asylum laws.

The other Left Party co-leader, Ines Schwerdtner, said the Left was "against the debt brake from the very start" and has promised that the party will use its new-found heft to demand concessions when two-thirds votes come around, adding "something has to happen in the next parliament."

Germany's probable next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, whose conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) emerged from Sunday's election as the largest party, has called for greater European solidarity in the face of an increasingly belligerent United States under President Donald Trump. 

"I am concerned about what we've been hearing out of Washington, especially in recent days," he told reporters in Berlin on Monday.

"All the signals from the USA suggest that interest in Europe is decreasing, but we hope we can convince the Americans that it is in our mutual interest to continue having good transatlantic relations."

"Up until now, we have had the same understanding of open societies, freedom, democracy and the free market. I sincerely hope that we can continue to develop our relationship based on these understandings."

However, he cautioned: "If those for whom 'America first' almost means 'America only' get their way, it will be difficult. If [the transatlantic relationship] is destroyed, it won't just harm Europe but America, too."

French President Emmanuel Macron en route to Washington to meet with Trump on Monday spoke to Merz on the phone from his plane.

"We spoke about the topics which he wants to discuss with the American president and we were in complete agreement," said Merz, who has struck a similar pro-European tone as Macron.

He also welcomed the fact that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to follow Macron to Washington later this week, as well as the moves the UK leader has been making to reengage with the continent after Brexit.

"I very much welcome the fact that Great Britain is once again seeking proximity to Europe, to the European Union," he said.

Germany's snap election on Sunday was called as a result of Christian Lindner's dismissal as finance minister in November, which led to the collapse of the coalition government led by Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats (SPD).

It ended with Lindner's Free Democrats (FDP) not placing any seats in Germany's Parliament, the Bundestag, altogether, and Lindner's resignation as the party's leader. 

"All the parties of the former coalition lost yesterday," he told party members on Monday. 

"Clearly, there was massive disappointment with the government's policies and the very nature of the coalition itself. Nevertheless, we still think it was the right decision to risk new elections in order to give our country a chance for a fresh start."

The pro-business FDP was the fourth largest party in 2021 with 11.4% of the vote and became the junior partner in a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.

This time around, they only polled 4.33% and have failed to even reach the minimum of 5% required to enter parliament at all.

"This election was important for our country, even if the Free Democrats have paid a high price," said Lindner. "Our society faces huge challenges in terms of economic development and political polarization – and the world won't wait for Germany. The new government will have to deal with that."

As for his own future and that of the FDP, Lindner confirmed that he would be stepping down, along with FDP general secretary Marco Buschmann. But Lindner insisted that they are leaving the party in a healthy state.

"The FDP remains a political factor," he said. "We are in the EU Parliament, we are in state parliaments and we have almost 70,000 members. Thank you for your continued interest in the FDP. I can assure you: it will be worth it."

Friedrich Merz, poised to be Germany's next chancellor, was met with resounding applause as he made televised remarks marking the CDU's election victory.

Merz emphasized fact that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) had "doubled" its amount of seats in parliament, calling it an "alarming signal" that his new government would have to address.

He added that German mainstream parties must respond to more voters drifting towards the political fringes.

The AfD's historical 20% performance in the election is "the last warning to the political parties of the democratic center in Germany," Merz said. 

First he thanked voters and campaign workers for the "extraordinarily good election result," saying it showed that the conservatives had "a clear mandate to govern."

He confirmed the assumption that his bloc will seek to build a coalition with the Social Democrats, narrowly forming a majority government.

Merz said that the two parties had already held preliminary talks.

Immigration and economic policy will be the main topics for discussion during the coalition negotiations, he said, reiterated his top priorities during the election campaign.

The SPD's party chair and future parliamentary leader said he shares Olaf Scholz's bitter disappointment at the election results, especially when after hearing from SPD candidates who had been defeated by the far-right AfD in eastern Germany.

"When we look at the map and see how the regions in the east have turned blue [the color of the far-right AfD party], when we see the scale of the challenge facing social democracy there, we know these will be difficult years for us," Lars Klingbeil said.

"It will be a tough battle. But that is the task we have been given by yesterday's election result. Analyze the result, yes. But also: fight."

He thanked Scholz for his service as chancellor and insisted that, in the future, "people will look back at his tenure very differently."

He also praised Scholz for launching Germany's now famous Zeitenwende, or turning point, in its foreign policy, for strengthening Germany's security, for kick-starting the "modernization" of Germany, all changes he thinks the country will feel in years to come.

Returning to the present, he said the SPD must be ready to act.

"The world is turbulent," he said, referring to the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump. "It is the responsibility of Germany to make Europe strong in the coming years, and that will require an able SPD."

Conservative leader and election winner Friedrich Merz reportedly intends to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an official visit to Germany, despite the arrest warrant against the Israeli leader. 

Netanyahu's office said that he had a "warm conversation" with Germany's likely future chancellor on Sunday evening and congratulated him on his success, and that Merz handed Netanyahu an official invitation to Germany as an "in overt defiance of the scandalous International Criminal Court decision to label the Prime Minister a war criminal."

A spokesperson for Merz's conservative CDU party confirmed to news agencies Reuters and DPA that the two had spoken by phone after the election. However, they declined to comment on the substance of the conversation.

Two weeks ago, Merz told German-Jewish newspaper Jüdische Allgemeine that he would invite Netanyahu as soon as he wins the election.

"Under my leadership, the Israeli prime minister will be able to travel to Germany unimpeded," he said.

Olaf Scholz, Germany's outgoing chancellor, has addressed supporters at the Social Democratic Party (SPD)'s headquarters in Berlin.

"Yesterday was a bitter day for the SPD, and it doesn’t feel any better today," he said, thanking those party members who had campaigned for the SPD as well as staff and colleagues who helped his coalition government carry out its work since 2021.

"Just as I took responsibility for the victory in 2021, I take responsibility for this result," he said.

He added that it had a been a "great honor" to lead Germany in what he called "the most challenging circumstances" the country has faced "since 1945."

Referring in particular to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Scholz said he was proud that, in the face of a war of aggression being waged "just a two-hour flight away," Germany has not abandoned Ukraine while managing to weather the economic effects.

According to polling firm Infratest dimap, right-wing parties were the most sucessful in convincing apathetic voters to go to the polls.

Some 1.86 million people who said they did not vote in the last federal election in 2021 said they voted for the far-right AfD this time around. The center-right CDU brought around 1 million former non-voters back to the ballot box.

Also notable in the data about voter change was how the pro-business FDP, which was part of the last governing coalition until its collapse in November, lost so many votes it will no longer have any seats in parliament. Coming in under the 5% necessary to enter the Bundestag, the FDP lost some 90,000 votes to the socialist Left Party. This stunned analysts, noting that the two parties are diametrically opposed on many issues from increasing the minimum wage to immigration to financial regulations.

The Green party, which suffered a major setback, bled 600,000 voters to the Left party, which follows criticism from former supporters that they had moved too far to the political center.

As for the SPD — which saw its worst federal election result since World War II — it lost some 1.8 million voters to its rival CDU.

Responding to the likely scenario that CDU leader Friedrich Merz becomes the next chancellor of Germany, the Russian government said it would have to wait and see how the relationship between Berlin and Moscow evolves.

"Each time (there's a new government) we want to hope for a more sober approach to reality, for a more sober approach to what could be issues of mutual interest (between Russia and Germany), mutual benefit...But let's see how it will be in reality," said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

Despite voicing opposition to the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the relationship between President Vladimir Putin and former Chancellor Angela Merkel was strained but cordial. Under Merkel, Germany became one of Russia's largest natural gas customers.

After the invasion of Ukraine, exactly three years ago on Monday, the Scholz government quickly sought new sources of energy and ties between the two countries have sunk to a post-Cold War low.

Merz has indicated he will be even more hawkish towards Russia than Scholz, and has proposed allowing Ukraine to use more advanced weaponry inside Russian territory.

Alice Weidel, the lead candidate of the far-right AfD which came second in the German election, said she woke up to a missed call from US presidential advisor Elon Musk on Monday morning.

"When I turned my phone on this morning and had a look, I had missed calls from the USA, including from Elon Musk, who has sent his personal congratulations," Weidel said in a press conference.

She said she would be returning calls today, "with whom I won't say; that's subject to certain levels of confidentiality." But she said the AfD was in contact with various people "including the Trump administration in Washington."

Musk had lent his support to the AfD on several occasions during the election campaign, including by hosting a chat with Weidel on his X social media platform and appearing at an AfD campaign event.

After election results rolled in on Monday, Musk predicted: "At this rate of growth, the AfD will be the majority party by the next election."

And seemingly wasn't the only person picking up the phone to congratulate the AfD, with co-chair Timo Chrupalla claiming he had received messages from two former Bayern Munich and German national team footballers.

"Greetings to Uli Hoeness," he said, referring to the Bayern honorary president and powerbroker who had said on Sunday that he would have a word with any current players who expressed support for the extreme-right party.

Aslihan Yesilkaya-Yurtbay of the Turkish Community in Germany (TGD) group decried the success of the far-right AfD party in a seering statement.

The TGD represents one of the largest immigrant communities in Germany at a time when the AfD has regularly been criticized for Islamophobia and leading an election campaign based on fearmongering against immigrants.

"People with migrant roots are frightened and are thinking about leaving Germany," Yesilkaya-Yurtbay said. "Without migration our country has no future."

Yesilkaya-Yurtbay further accused other parties of having "followed the AfD's narrative to varying degrees and have promised to solve the 'migration problem' with the aim of pushing the AfD back. This has been a resounding failure."

Some 25% of Germans come from immigrant backgrounds. Repeated studies have shown that despite AfD claims, immigration has not increased the crime rate in Germany and that morever, immigrants are necessary to plug up the gaps in Germany's workforce due to demographic decline.

Turnout in Germany's federal election has been provisionally recorded at 82.5% – the highest since 1987 (84.3%) and since German reunification in 1990.

The last time turnout passed the 80%-mark was in 1998 when 82.2% of Germans cast their vote to end the 16-year chancellorship of Helmut Kohl (CDU).

In 2009, a record low of just 70.8% prompted concerns over an increasing erosion of democracy, before turnout steadily began to rise again to 76.2% in 2017 and 76.4% in 2021.

The 2025 turnout therefore represents a 6.1 percentage point increase – but it is still a far cry from the first few decades of the Federal Republic of Germany when over 85% of the electorate regularly turned out to vote.

The highest-ever turnout of 91.1% was recorded in 1972 when Willy Brandt (SPD) became chancellor. Four years later, it was still at 90.7% before dropping off in the 1980s and 1990s.

Internationally, German election turnout remains comparatively high. Turnout in last year's US presidential election was 63.9% and turnout in the United Kingdom's last general election dropped to just 59.8%. In the EU, turnout in Romania's presidential election, which has since been annulled by the country's constitutional court, was at 52.56%. A similarly small number took part in neighboring Moldova's presidential election.