European Union mulls easing Syria sanctions — with a catch

Hadja Lahbib received a red carpet welcome last week when she became the first European commissioner to visit Damascus, Syria's capital, and meet with the country's new leaders after the toppling of Bashar Assad last month.

She and Ahmad al-Sharaa, the Islamist rebel turned interim government leader, walked side by side, posed for photographs and sat across from one another for the first-of-their-kind talks.

Lahbib was there to announce a boost in aid from the European Union and push for more humanitarian access, but the ask from the Syrian side is clear: if you want to help, lift the broad sanctions imposed over Assad-era violations which keep the Syrian economy shut off from Europe.

The EU is still working out how to answer that question.

"We are waiting for some development and cautiously, we are here also to encourage the new authorities to build an inclusive Syria, embracing all its citizens, all its diversity," Lahbib said January 17 when pressed by journalists. "We need to see the rule of law being respected, human rights, women's rights."

With the clock ticking, Brussels is undertaking another complicated balancing act: supporting a democratic transition without supporting extremism, hoping refugees return without forcing deportations and waiting to see what happens next without losing the race for geopolitical influence with rivals like Russia.

On Monday, EU foreign ministers will assess what to do next. Here's what we know so far about what they're considering.

Which sanctions will the EU ease?

Throughout Syria's bloody civil war, the EU and other Western powers drastically restricted exports to Syria, cutting off diplomatic and financial ties with the former regime over its abuses.

But in a leaked document seen by DW, Germany and a handful of other EU states have said it's time for a rethink. They have suggested a series of sanctions that should be "suspended swiftly and without prerequisites" to serve "as a first gesture towards the Syrian people."

The first measures are linked to travel to simplify moving between the EU and Syria. Additional ideas include ending export bans on jet fuel and restrictions on Syrian airlines to facilitate civilian flights.

The bloc will also consider lifting restrictions on some high-value goods like vehicles, to allow "Syrians who wish to relocate their businesses to Syria" and other potential investors to set up import and export routes.

Next, a group of states, which includes France, the Netherlands and Spain, has argued that EU embargoes on oil and gas technology should be eased, along with bans on financing energy infrastructure projects.

Lastly, there's a push to reopen some banking relationships to facilitate investment. "Syrians need access to their personal finances. To ensure this, essential financial channels between the EU and Syria need to be reopened," reads the diplomatic document, circulated in mid-January.

Sanctions 'snapback' tool to maintain leverage?

Speaking with DW, an EU diplomat who asked not to be named said the idea is to promote a peaceful transition in Syria while retaining some EU leverage and to help reestablish economic activity to create better conditions for possible future returns of Syrian refugees.

However, the proposals are far from a total end to the EU's Syria sanctions. The leaked document also suggests the bloc brew up a "snapback" tool to swiftly reimpose sanctions if its "expectations" are unmet.

With no clear benchmarks for those expectations, analyst Kelly Petillo said Brussels may be playing a risky game.

"If we delay the easing of sanctions and the support that we provide to Syria because we want to condition that with a political transition which will take years, we risk to derail the process and let it go in ways which might be actually not conducive to our interests," Petillo, who manages the Middle East program of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.

"I don't think there is any example I know of in the region of a political transition that has occurred within six months to a year. These things last a long time, and it will take years even to create conditions for elections."

Diplomatic dilemma

Brigitte Herremans, a researcher focused on Syrian transitional justice at Ghent University, said the EU is facing a diplomatic dilemma as it plots its future ties with Syria.

"If you want to promote the transition and if you want to back up the new caretaker government, there's more that you need to do," she told DW.

"But the bind for the EU, of course, is how far to go with the new caretaker government, which has Islamist roots and which might also participate in further human rights violations."

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group at the helm of Syria's new leadership, remains controversial over its past links to extremists, including al-Qaeda. Back in 2020, the EU accused HTS of detaining, torturing and murdering civilians living in areas under their control.

At the time, Brussels said those actions "may amount to war crimes or crimes against humanity."

HTS terror listing won't change overnight

But after HTS led the lightning offensive that toppled Assad last month, an internal EU document seen by DW states that the "watershed moment in Syria's history" requires the bloc to "reassess [its] approach to the country."

"Our policy now needs to evolve to reflect the new reality and the rise of the new authorities," it reads.

The United Nations still designates HTS as a terrorist organization, meaning that changing that status would involve a review at the UN level.

"This is thus a question for the entire international community, not for the EU alone," an EU spokesperson told DW in written comments.

But while the terror listing won't change overnight, the EU can lift sanctions it imposed so long as all EU members back the plan.

A diplomatic source told DW they expect a first "political agreement" to ease some restrictions on Monday, with more technical work to follow to implement the plan. 

Edited by: Davis VanOpdorp