Ethiopia: Escalation in Tigray threatens regional stability

Just over two years have passed since Ethiopia's government and rival factions signed the Ethiopia-Tigray peace accords, also called the Pretoria Agreement, in South Africa's administrative capital. While it officially ended a fierce war in Tigray, Ethiopia's northernmost state, another war now looms, and tensions are high.  

"People are worried," says Kiflom Abraha, a young man living in Mekelle, Tigray's state capital.

"People are not working, and long lines have formed at banks as they try to withdraw money. The cost of living has skyrocketed."

Though the November 2022 peace agreement brought some calm, many are still displaced. Fear of a return to the war that rocked Tigray and neighboring regions between 2020 and 2022 echoes around.

"After the Pretoria Agreement, there was peace, but with many challenges," Nigisti Garede, head of the Tigray Teachers' Association in Mekelle, told DW.

"After some time, problems arose due to differences among the leaders. They have split into two factions, creating unrest in society and instilling fear about what will happen next. Law and order are absent."

Tigray now divided

Indeed, a power play among the Tigrayan elite has sidelined Getachew Reda, head of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration since 2023, after several military commanders sided with Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Parts of Tigray along the Eritrean border are already controlled by this faction.

"The TPLF had been very united for many, many years," London-based analyst Martin Plaut told DW.

"They'd always resolved their problems internally. Now they are completely and utterly split."

Getachew, who negotiated the Pretoria Agreement for the TPLF in 2022, became the president of Tigray's interim government. He was backed by Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who rejected Debretsion. 

Backlash over Tigrayan power

Abiy, in office since 2018, initially showed signs of furthering democratization and reconciliation. His rapprochement with long-time enemy Eritrea earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

But the Ethiopian prime minister's image as a reformer was soon stained as his institutional fight against Tigray's political elite became ugly.

Abiy's reforms meant members of the established Tigray elite were forced out of privileged positions in government and security they had held for decades, but they remained strong in Tigray.

Plaut, who recently co-authored the book "Understanding Ethiopia's Tigray War," said the 2020-2022 war was about trying to break the power of the TPLF.  

"This was something that was agreed on by both Prime Minister Abiy and the Eritrean leader, President Isaias Afwerki," Plaut told DW. 

"That was the one thing they really agreed upon. And in essence, it wasn't achieved. They couldn't destroy the TPLF militarily, and they weren't able to remove them, so both sides who had invaded Tigray were left frustrated. And that has left the situation very unresolved."

A weakened government as regional powers watch 

Political actors inside Ethiopia and observers say an escalation of the conflict is imminent. Influential Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Vice President of the Tigray Interim Administration, warned that a war "seems inevitable" and last week called for negotiations.

Various parties spoke of the need to strengthen the interim administration. As Ethiopia showed signs of preparing for a new war, neighboring Eritrea was said to be doing the same.

However, Plaut is wary of making predictions. "President Isaias of Eritrea, who has repeatedly intervened in the internal affairs of Ethiopia and is already arming certain factions inside Ethiopia, is always very cautious about what he does and acts right at the last moment."

The renewed conflict comes as the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions find themselves in various crises, including the war in Sudan. Both Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the TPLF support factions in Sudan.

Tensions between Somalia and Somaliland also recently flared up when Ethiopia tried to strike a deal for cooperation at a Somaliland port, a plan it seems to have backed down from. Ethiopia's vast hydropower project on the Nile has also caused a row with Egypt and Sudan.

Middle Eastern interests

According to Plaut, the ambitions of the Middle Eastern countries are key to the region's stability.

"You have to look at the foreign policy agenda of both the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates," he said. "They are the major powers in the region who have plenty of money and plenty of ambition."

While the UAE was seen to support Ethiopia, Plaut said Saudi Arabia was wary of the UAE's ambitions and may, therefore, counter them by supporting Eritrea. But he added that because allegiances "keep shifting," any outcome remains hard to assess.

Million Haileselassie in Mekelle contributed reporting.