Can Africa jumpstart the DRC peace process?

The conflict in eastern Democratic Republic Congo (DRC) is dominating international headlines as the UN Human Rights Council prepares to discuss the situation at the end of the week.

Dreadful details of mass killing and mass rape have emerged since the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the city of Goma.

Over the past month alone, 3,000 people were killed and around 700,000 displaced as the rebels advanced quickly into the territory, according to the Congolese government.

Did the peace process get a jumpstart?

On the weekend, the East African Community (EAC), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) called for an immediate ceasefire, and defense chiefs from the EAC and SADC blocs are still due to meet by the end of this week to start work on a roadmap for peace.

However, no peace accord or ceasefire has held since the 1990s, as Congo and Rwanda continue to fight over who is really fueling the bloodshed — and why.

Some political analysts, however, cautiously see hope for a promising outcome.

"I think there is a good likelihood that we'll see a slightly reinvigorated peace process, if only because we have a little bit of momentum coming out of the EAC-SADC summit," Ben Shepherd, a Chatham House analyst, told DW. 

"However, I don't think the fundamentals of the conflict have shifted very much. I don't think that the M23 has an incentive to negotiate in good faith, given that they are not facing significant opposition on the battlefield and are not coming under particularly concerted international pressure."

The Congolese government meanwhile also appears to lack a proper incentive to compromise, given the political cost its president, Felix Tshisekedi, would face if he were to be seen to be a making a deal with M23, according to Shepherd.

Is Rwanda still rejecting blame?

International relations expert Abiol Lual Deng sees a shift in some of the dynamics in the region. 

"Rwanda has for the first time not fully denied their connection to the M23 rebels, which is rather unprecedented," she told DW, adding that in any peace talks, "both will be seen as key to stakeholders in the region's future."

"That could mean transitioning to roles involved in the humanitarian, peace and development prospects for this critical mineral-rich region amidst the growing global race for precious metals and resources," she explained.

Who's feeling more pressure: Congo or Rwanda? 

Shepherd sees the pressure on the two warring neighbors as roughly equal: "Rwanda has been subject to pretty strong declarations by pretty much the entire international community — the US, China, France, UK, the G7," he said. 

By contrast, the pressure on the government of Congo is greater on the domestic front, according to analysts.

"I think the Congolese government is certainly under a great deal more pressure than the Rwanda government. I think the government of President Kagame is exceptionally rooted and secure," Shepherd said.

What is the US view on the conflict?

According to Deng, the current dynamic shift in US geopolitical relations also means that the Trump administration is likely keen to see an end to the conflict. 

In the wake of the capture of Goma, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Rwanda leader that Washington wanted a ceasefire in Congo. The top diplomat said he also called Congolese President Tshisekedi to discuss strengthening ties.

The US meanwhile also urged the UN Security Council to consider measures to halt the offensive by the M23.

African leaders, in contrast, have shared little on the roadmap for peace they discussed in Tanzania. They've also refrained from making public statements since the summit.

"At the end of the day, the African oral tradition is a key aspect of diplomacy and it is often in contrast to the more seemingly traditional Western approach," said Deng. 

On Saturday, however, Kagame lashed out against the DRC leadership once more on X, saying, "DRC cannot just tell us to keep quiet when they are mounting a security problem against our country. Nobody can tell us to shut up."

Many Rwandans are seen as siding with him on social media. 

Are peacekeeping missions in jeopardy?

On Monday, lawmakers in South Africa endorsed the outcomes of the summit in Tanzania as they convened for a debate over its peacekeepers in Congo.

However, that debate was anything but straight-forward: There is mounting public anger over the killing of 14 South African soldiers deployed as SADC peacekeepers to the DRC.

The killing of two Malawian peacekeepers has prompted President Lazarus Chakwera to order a withdrawal  

According to Shepherd, the SADC peacekeeping, unlike the UN's MONUSCO mandate in the DRC, was successful in fighting rebels in Congo in the past. "It clearly hasn't been particularly successful this time around," he said. 

"It's very problematic for UN peacekeeping that MONUSCO was unable to effectively play a role in preventing the fall of Goma," Shepherd added.

In the meantime, what's increasingly concerning is the level of suffering and impunity in eastern Congo, said Deng: "It's probable that conflicts around the political map of Africa as drawn in the decolonization phase, specifically around contested mineral-rich zones, could keep occuring."

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson