No easy way out

The one thing that outside experts are certain about the presidential election is that the process was deeply flawed and resulted in massive fraud. The EU's election observer mission made this point very clearly a few days ago when it said that up 1.5 million votes of some 5.5 million votes were possibly fraudulent and urged that releasing any poll numbers would be "premature and not credible" until the suspect votes had been vetted. Ten percent of all polling stations were already slated for a recount by the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission.

On the same day the European monitors warned of publishing any figures, the Afghan election commission did exactly that, releasing preliminary results that put President Hamid Karzai over the required 50 percent hurdle. What's more, in an unusually strong tone, Karzai's team called the EU observer's statement "partial, irresponsible and counter to Afghanistan's constitution." President Karsai himself flatly rejected the EU's claim of massive fraud. "If there was fraud, it was small, it happens all over the world," he said.

"Basically, you have an outgoing president who has sold the Afghan state to buy the victory," is how Fabrice Pothier, an Afghanistan expert and director of the think tank Carnegie Europe, characterizes the situation. "He has made some deals with local power holders, some warlords from the North as well as from the South, as well as obviously organize a nationwide fraud."

Emperor without clothes

That puts the international community in a tight spot regardless of the final outcome of the marred election. Even if the incumbent Karzai were to be declared the official winner after the first round of voting and a recount, and be vetted by the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission, his reputation would still be severely tarnished and render him a weak partner for the international community to deal with.

Inside the country, Karzai's support has been deteriorating for some time as well, to the point where he now enjoys hardly any trust from the Afghan people, notes Conrad Schetter, an Afghanistan analyst at the Bonn-based Center for Development Research. "That means that we could have, as a worst case scenario after all this election turmoil, an emperor without clothes. Somebody who will not have any support within the country."

However, the other other possible scenario, that Karzai could be forced into a runoff with his closest challenger Abdullah Abdullah, doesn't look any better. First because it would take months - probably until spring - until a second round of voting would be completed. "Are we prepared for a winter without government and without legitimacy?" asks Pothier. What's more, adds Schetter, it is questionable whether the Afghan institutional apparatus could even handle such a runoff election and whether such a second round of voting would be any more free and fair than the previous one.

Essentially, the international community is in a no-win situation. "It's a mess indeed," says Pothier. He believes that world leaders are still sitting on the fence and haven't yet come up with a decision on how to handle the Afghanistan dilemma. Pothier predicts that in Europe the tarnished election will lead to a further weakening of popular support for engagement in Afghanistan. "Because literally now Europeans are wondering, why are we sending our soldiers to die for democracy that is a scam."

Afghan surge

If Karzai remains president, suggests Pothier, the international community should try to influence his cabinet choices and have him create a new executive role for someone like the internationally well regarded Ashraf Ghani, who could work with the EU, UN and US.

But even more important than whether Karzai stays on as president or not, says Pothier, is to discuss a managed exit from the country, because even with thousands of additional troops, it will be impossible to defeat the Taliban militarily. That exit requires a huge investment in Afghanistan's security and civilian institutions so they can run a functioning state once Western forces leave. "For the moment we have under-invested in Afghan institutions. So I think it's time to get really serious about an Afghan surge."

A lack of a coherent international strategy for Afghanistan also concerns Schetter. "There isn't enough discussion about what Afghanistan should look like realistically in 10 years," he says. If the election quagmire proves one thing, then that it's high time for a clear concept for the future of Afghanistan, conclude the experts. Without it, the international community will be stuck with a constant crisis without a chance of making real progress in stabilizing the country.

Author: Michael Knigge
Editor: Rob Mudge